Real-Time Trader Sentiment

$DWC – A Real Time Sentiment Index & Security

DWC - Normalized (With Range Boundaries)

DWC – Normalized (With Range Boundaries)

Fundamental and Technical trading indicators have long been used as a proxy for market sentiment.

But by definition, these indicators have always lagged the movements they’ve been used to forecast.

With the advent of “Big Data”, social data too has joined the ranks, e.g. Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, with various attempts being made to harness any potentially predictive patterns through “opinion mining“.

 

However, Real-Time Sentiment Analysis continues to be an elusive, ever-evolving challenge.

The Challenge: Measuring in real-time, how market participants are presently orientated.

The Solution: DARWIN DWC? ..continue reading for the answer.

If you missed our first post introducing DARWIN $DWC, you may read it here.


DWC – An Index & Tradable Security bundled into one.

DWC is Darwinex Labs’ first attempt at openly addressing the problem of lagged sentiment.

By leveraging community exposure in a manner that protects individual trader IP, DWC shows how the Darwinex trader collective is inclined in real-time.

As a Real-Time Sentiment Indicator, DWC also exhibits the following features:

  1. 24/5 LIQUIDITY during market hours.
    DWC - Instantly Liquid During Market Hours

    DWC – Instantly Liquid During Market Hours

     

  2. Tradable 24/5 -> the ability to buy into sentiment directly (i.e. buy DWC) eliminates the need for considering purchases of index-linked Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) or Notes (ETNs) as is the case with say the VIX Implied Volatility Index.
    DWC - Real Time Community Sentiment

    DWC – Real Time Community Sentiment

     

  3. Cyclical / Mean Reverting -> trading a reasonably predictable, well-defined, mean-reverting price range is high on every trader/investor’s wishlist.
    DWC - Price Quotes

    DWC – Price Quotes

     

    DWC - Normalized (With Range Boundaries)

    DWC – Normalized (With Range Boundaries)

     

  4. HIGH CAPACITY – With a current maximum investment capacity of 1.2 to 1.5 Billion USD, there is plenty of retail volume this asset can take to market with little to no market impact -> community IP remains protected at all times, trader/investor interests remain aligned, no conflict of interest.
  5. DWC replicates the opposite of the trader collective’s behaviour – A significant majority of traders routinely demonstrate Loss Aversion (keep losing trades open in confidence that odds are favourable, but close winning trades too soon). The pitfalls of loss aversion make themselves particularly well known during deep market movements. For more details on this, please refer to our first post on DWC.
  6. As DWC replicates the opposite of trader behaviour, it rises during such times.

DWC can therefore be used by Darwinex traders and investors as:

1) A “hedge” during turbulent, deep market movements.

2) A reasonably stable, range-bound asset to trade on its own otherwise.

 

Conclusions:

  1. This post highlighted that the DWC moves with trader sentiment in real-time, realizing progress in “human cognition” led asset management.
  2. Traders stand to benefit from the mean-reverting nature of the DWC offering range-trading and hedging opportunities.
  3. DWC is a sentiment indicator and directly tradable asset.

 

What happens next?

In future posts, we will commence publishing several streams of quantitative research (e.g. ARIMA/GARCH modeling, deep learning experiments, etc) that we’ve been conducting on the DWC dataset.

Stay tuned!

Additional Resource: Measuring Investments’ Risk: Value at Risk (VIDEO)
* please activate CC mode to view subtitles.

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Darwinia winners

本月的“交易员实盘账户交易大赛”的赢家就是他们……..

5月份的交易员实盘账户交易大赛已经结束了。

在下表中,您可以看到本期大赛的48位赢家,他们将从我们共计4000000欧元的名义跟单奖励资金奖池中,被分配到我们的主动奖励跟单资金!每期跟单资金的使用期限为6个月。

名次 DARWIN 5月跟单分配资金金额
1st XIN € 300,000.00
2nd GTD € 250,000.00
3rd DZT € 210,000.00
4th WEF € 170,000.00
5th KVL € 150,000.00
6th PUZ € 140,000.00
7th SVI € 130,000.00
8th ERQ € 120,000.00
9th NTI € 110,000.00
10th TOP € 110,000.00
11th OLT € 110,000.00
12th LVS € 100,000.00
13th RWL € 100,000.00
14th VTJ € 100,000.00
15th CLA € 90,000.00
16th VQG € 90,000.00
17th STM € 90,000.00
18th YMK € 80,000.00
19th THA € 80,000.00
20th MLS € 80,000.00
21st YHN € 70,000.00
22nd FTA € 70,000.00
23rd WZG € 70,000.00
24th FCQ € 70,000.00
25th SSS € 60,000.00
26th MDI € 60,000.00
27th VLR € 60,000.00
28th NND € 60,000.00
29th QNR € 60,000.00
30th OPK € 60,000.00
31st UEI € 50,000.00
32nd JMW € 50,000.00
33rd KDU € 50,000.00
34th FTT € 50,000.00
35th DLF € 50,000.00
36th VHI € 50,000.00
37th RSR € 50,000.00
38th XGU € 40,000.00
39th VFL € 40,000.00
40th WPQ € 40,000.00
41st VQB € 40,000.00
42nd FGC € 40,000.00
43rd XXW € 40,000.00
44th CSP € 40,000.00
45th MRV € 30,000.00
46th XYP € 30,000.00
47th PFH € 30,000.00
48th RQH € 30,000.00