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Are FX markets playing crazy?

25 March 2015

More than 2 months after the SNB bloodbath, things should be returning to “normal” in FX markets… but are they?

Is last week’s 1-day dip then re-bound in the EURUSD ¨normal¨? How about the speed with which the USD approaches EUR?

FX Volatility

FXVolatility

The 6 USD TRN a day FX behemoth now seems jumpier than equity markets, and that’s not “normal”.

What if these are not freak-events, but the tail of a volatility wave?

How about bond markets?

Surely things ought to be more rationale in less speculative parts of town?

1427218533

Yes, the Greek tragedy will unfold. Surely that’s part of it. But Greece is a small-ish fish in the bigger pond – it really seems as though the rest of the pond is moving too.

Bi-polar trading, anyone?

The underlying theme is interest rate expectations. No-one, least of all the Fed, really knows how the Fed will tighten US interest rates. Similarly, with QE just starting and the ECB entering unknown territory, no-one really knows where the Euro economy is headed, one month before a major milestone for Greece (and the Euro), etc.

With more than your fair share of macro-economic unknowns, who’s surprised by volatilities spiking? Plus traders take sides: check EUR-USD positioning.

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That’s the kind of psychology that delivers (and follows) 22% value gain by the dollar vs. the US main commercial counterparts. It’s not happened in the last 40 years, but you can’t rule out it all happening again next year!

This is NOT a video-game on a trading screen. EURUSD has direct impact on absolute and relative global GDP growth (how import crazy will the US go?), debt servicing costs, commodity prices, etc. etc. This is a recurring them on the Financial Times in the next  3-5 years.

Implications for brokers and independent traders

Volatility is different things to different pockets. When it spikes, institutional money (focus: return OF capital) typically retreats into risk minimisation mode. To speculative money (focus: return ON capital)  this as a boon, the kind of environment to quickly build (and burn, and build again) a great reputation.

FX mean reversion is gone for now. “Hold on and recover when the ebb flows” can get any market making b-book broker out of a hole in normal conditions, but a client B-book over-exposed one way or the other could well be deadly now. Smart b-bookers will a-book more… passing the hot cookie to their LPs.

Problem is: how much risk appetite do they have post SNB? Established LPs may (partially or totally) withdraw as volatility mounts. Flows will perhaps land with less established LPs keener to pick coins in front of steam trains than the big boys.

Altogether, spreads ought to widen for the foreseeable future… which brings us to the implications for traders.

If you haven’t learnt the lesson yet, now is the time.

  • Investor capital is your ONLY viable business model.  You’re likelier to turn 3k into a million by playing the lottery than by trading your own capital with leverage.
  • Adjust your leverage. A 1:1 leverage EURUSD trade today is 2+ times riskier than 3 or 4 months ago.
  • That’s if you consider “average” moments. Spikes could well be significantly larger!
  • Do not trade with unregulated or lightly regulated broker-dealers.
  • Check not only your broker’s solvency, but their liquidity providers’.

Darwinex

It always pays to be an FCA regulated. As does offering FSCS protection up to 50.000 GBP and only offering liquid instruments on a 100% non-market making, pure broker basis.

Plus, this is a great learning opportunity for DARWIN risk management algorithms. Several extreme events in such a short time feed the event data-base, update risk policies and sharpen management scenarios. And with FX volatility making the headlines on a regular basis, expect new entrants into the market – which is not a bad thing.

Time to upgrade your trading?

 

Last News

Darwinex Amended Trading Hours (US Independence Day)

27 June 2018

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming US Independence Day holiday on 3 & 4 July 2018 (all times are in UK time).  Instrument 3 July 2018 (Tue) 4 July 2018 (Wed)  FX 22:05 Mon – 22:00 Tue 22:05 Tue – 22:00 Wed   DARWINS 22:05 Mon – 22:00 Tue 22:05 Tue – 22:00 Wed […]

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming US Independence Day holiday on 3 & 4 July 2018 (all times are in UK time).

 Instrument 3 July 2018 (Tue) 4 July 2018 (Wed)
 FX 22:05 Mon – 22:00 Tue 22:05 Tue – 22:00 Wed
  DARWINS 22:05 Mon – 22:00 Tue 22:05 Tue – 22:00 Wed
 COMMODITIES    
Gold* 23:01 Mon – 21:59 Tue 23:01 Tue – 18:00 Wed
Silver* 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue 23:00 Tue – 18:00 Wed
Platinum* 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue 23:00 Tue – 18:00 Wed
Palladium* 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue 23:00 Tue – 18:00 Wed
US Crude* 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue 23:00 Tue – 17:45 Wed
Natural Gas* 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue 23:00 Tue – 17:45 Wed
 INDICES    
Australia 200 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
 Europe 50 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
France 40 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
Germany 30 07:00 – 21:00 07:00 – 21:00
Spain 35 07:00 – 19:00 07:00 – 19:00
Japan 225* 23:00 Mon – 18:15  Tue 23:00 Tue – 18:00 Wed
 UK 100 23:00 Mon – 22:00  Tue 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
 US SPX 500* 23:00 Mon – 18:15 Tue 23:00 Tue – 18:00 Wed
 US Tech 100* 23:00 Mon – 18:15 Tue 23:00 Tue – 18:00 Wed
Wall Street 30* 23:00 Mon – 18:15 Tue 23:00 Tue – 18:00 Wed
 CRYPTO    
All Crypto Instruments  22:05 Mon – 22:00 Tue 22:05 Tue – 22:00 Wed
*Amended Darwinex trading hours.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

Turkey General Elections on June 24th, 2018

21 June 2018

On Sunday June 24th, 2018, the first  round of general elections will be held in Turkey. If you plan to stay in the market during the weekend in pairs related to the Turkish lira (USDTRY, EURTRY y GPBTRY), please make sure you post margin / equity in your account as volatility is expected to increase […]

On Sunday June 24th, 2018, the first  round of general elections will be held in Turkey.

If you plan to stay in the market during the weekend in pairs related to the Turkish lira (USDTRY, EURTRY y GPBTRY), please make sure you post margin / equity in your account as volatility is expected to increase heading into the elections and upon Sunday’s market open. Although we are not planning to introduce changes to our margin requirements, please be informed that Darwinex reserves the right to change margin requirements as we move closer to the elections and depending on the outcome.

Should we decide to introduce any changes to our trading conditions, we’ll  contact you via email, blog post and social media as soon as possible.

Please do not hesitate to contact us at info@darwinex.com should you need assistance.

Darwinex Trading Hours for ucomping Bank Holiday in Australia (11 June 2018)

7 June 2018

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming Bank Holiday in Australia on 11 June 2018 (all times are in UK time).  Instrument Trading Hours  FX 22:05 Sun – 22:00 Mon   DARWINS 22:05 Sun – 22:00 Mon  COMMODITIES   Gold 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon Silver 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon Platinum 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon Palladium 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon US Crude 23:00 […]

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming Bank Holiday in Australia on 11 June 2018 (all times are in UK time).

 Instrument Trading Hours
 FX 22:05 Sun – 22:00 Mon
  DARWINS 22:05 Sun – 22:00 Mon
 COMMODITIES  
Gold 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon
Silver 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon
Platinum 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon
Palladium 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon
US Crude 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon
Natural Gas 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon
 INDICES  
Australia 200* 08:10 – 22:00
 Europe 50 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon
France 40 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon
Germany 30 07:00 – 21:00
Spain 35 08:00 – 19:00
Japan 225 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon
 UK 100 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon
 US SPX 500 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon
 US Tech 100 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon
Wall Street 30 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon
*Amended Darwinex trading hours.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

Important announcement re swaps

31 May 2018

Please be informed that starting on Thursday, 7 June 2018, Fx and XAUUSD swaps will be charged in triple size on Thursdays (instead of Fridays). Below you can find a brief summary of the different swaps charges for different assets.  Instrument Swaps   FX Daily at 17:00 NY City time (in triple size on Thursdays)   […]

Please be informed that starting on Thursday, 7 June 2018, Fx and XAUUSD swaps will be charged in triple size on Thursdays (instead of Fridays).

Below you can find a brief summary of the different swaps charges for different assets.

 Instrument Swaps 
 FX Daily at 17:00 NY City time (in triple size on Thursdays)
  COMMODITIES
Gold Daily at 17:00 NY City time (in triple size on Thursdays)
Rest of Commodities Daily at 17:00 NY City time (in triple size on Wednesdays)
 INDICES  Daily on market close (in triple size on Fridays)
*Since Thursday, 7 June 2018.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

Amended Trading Hours due to US Memorial Day & UK Spring Bank Holiday (28 May 2018)

22 May 2018

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming US Memorial Day & UK Spring Bank Holiday on 28 May 2018 (all times are in UK time). Important: as explained in our Help Section, if you open / close an investment in a DARWIN that has an open trade in an asset which market […]

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming US Memorial Day & UK Spring Bank Holiday on 28 May 2018 (all times are in UK time).

Important: as explained in our Help Section, if you open / close an investment in a DARWIN that has an open trade in an asset which market is closed (see amended trading hours in red below), the transaction will not be carried out immediately,  the investment will show up in your investor platform once it has been executed by our system when the index/commodity resumes trading on Monday night.

 Instrument Trading Hours
 FX  22:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon
  DARWINS  22.05 Sun – 22.00 Mon
 COMMODITIES
Gold* 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
Silver* 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
Platinum* 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
Palladium* 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
US Crude* 23:00 Sun – 17:45 Mon
Natural Gas* 23:00 Sun – 17:45 Mon
 INDICES
Australia 200 22:05 Sun – 22:00 Mon
 Europe 50 22:05 Sun – 22:00 Mon
France 40 22:05 Sun – 22:00 Mon
Germany 30 07:00 – 21:00
Spain 35 07:00 – 19:00
Japan 225*  22:05 Sun – 18:00 Mon 
 UK 100* Closed
 US SPX 500* 22:05 Sun – 18:00 Mon
 US Tech 100* 22:05 Sun – 18:00 Mon
Wall Street 30* 22:05 Sun – 18:00 Mon
*Amended Darwinex trading hours.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

Amended trading hours during German Public Holiday (21 May 2018)

16 May 2018

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the German Public Holiday on 21 May 2018 (all times are in UK time).  Instrument Trading Hours  FX  22.05 Sun – 22.00 Mon   DARWINs  22.05 Sun – 22.00 Mon  COMMODITIES 23.00 Sun – 22.00 Mon  INDICES Australia 200 22.05 Sun – 22.00 Mon  Europe 50 22.05 Sun […]

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the German Public Holiday on 21 May 2018 (all times are in UK time).

 Instrument Trading Hours
 FX  22.05 Sun – 22.00 Mon
  DARWINs  22.05 Sun – 22.00 Mon
 COMMODITIES 23.00 Sun – 22.00 Mon
 INDICES
Australia 200 22.05 Sun – 22.00 Mon
 Europe 50 22.05 Sun – 22.00 Mon
France 40 22.05 Sun – 22.00 Mon
Germany 30* Closed
Spain 35 07:00 – 19:00
Japan 225  22.05 Sun – 22.00 Mon 
 UK 100 22.05 Sun – 22.00 Mon
 US SPX 500 22.05 Sun – 22.00 Mon
 US Tech 100 22.05 Sun – 22.00 Mon
Wall Street 30 22.05 Sun – 22.00 Mon
*Amended Darwinex trading hours.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!