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Are FX markets playing crazy?

25 March 2015

More than 2 months after the SNB bloodbath, things should be returning to “normal” in FX markets… but are they?

Is last week’s 1-day dip then re-bound in the EURUSD ¨normal¨? How about the speed with which the USD approaches EUR?

FX Volatility

FXVolatility

The 6 USD TRN a day FX behemoth now seems jumpier than equity markets, and that’s not “normal”.

What if these are not freak-events, but the tail of a volatility wave?

How about bond markets?

Surely things ought to be more rationale in less speculative parts of town?

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Yes, the Greek tragedy will unfold. Surely that’s part of it. But Greece is a small-ish fish in the bigger pond – it really seems as though the rest of the pond is moving too.

Bi-polar trading, anyone?

The underlying theme is interest rate expectations. No-one, least of all the Fed, really knows how the Fed will tighten US interest rates. Similarly, with QE just starting and the ECB entering unknown territory, no-one really knows where the Euro economy is headed, one month before a major milestone for Greece (and the Euro), etc.

With more than your fair share of macro-economic unknowns, who’s surprised by volatilities spiking? Plus traders take sides: check EUR-USD positioning.

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That’s the kind of psychology that delivers (and follows) 22% value gain by the dollar vs. the US main commercial counterparts. It’s not happened in the last 40 years, but you can’t rule out it all happening again next year!

This is NOT a video-game on a trading screen. EURUSD has direct impact on absolute and relative global GDP growth (how import crazy will the US go?), debt servicing costs, commodity prices, etc. etc. This is a recurring them on the Financial Times in the next  3-5 years.

Implications for brokers and independent traders

Volatility is different things to different pockets. When it spikes, institutional money (focus: return OF capital) typically retreats into risk minimisation mode. To speculative money (focus: return ON capital)  this as a boon, the kind of environment to quickly build (and burn, and build again) a great reputation.

FX mean reversion is gone for now. “Hold on and recover when the ebb flows” can get any market making b-book broker out of a hole in normal conditions, but a client B-book over-exposed one way or the other could well be deadly now. Smart b-bookers will a-book more… passing the hot cookie to their LPs.

Problem is: how much risk appetite do they have post SNB? Established LPs may (partially or totally) withdraw as volatility mounts. Flows will perhaps land with less established LPs keener to pick coins in front of steam trains than the big boys.

Altogether, spreads ought to widen for the foreseeable future… which brings us to the implications for traders.

If you haven’t learnt the lesson yet, now is the time.

  • Investor capital is your ONLY viable business model.  You’re likelier to turn 3k into a million by playing the lottery than by trading your own capital with leverage.
  • Adjust your leverage. A 1:1 leverage EURUSD trade today is 2+ times riskier than 3 or 4 months ago.
  • That’s if you consider “average” moments. Spikes could well be significantly larger!
  • Do not trade with unregulated or lightly regulated broker-dealers.
  • Check not only your broker’s solvency, but their liquidity providers’.

Darwinex

It always pays to be an FCA regulated. As does offering FSCS protection up to 50.000 GBP and only offering liquid instruments on a 100% non-market making, pure broker basis.

Plus, this is a great learning opportunity for DARWIN risk management algorithms. Several extreme events in such a short time feed the event data-base, update risk policies and sharpen management scenarios. And with FX volatility making the headlines on a regular basis, expect new entrants into the market – which is not a bad thing.

Time to upgrade your trading?

 

Last News

Trading Hours for US Presidents’ Day on 17th February 2020

4 February 2020

Please note that the following trading hours will apply on Monday 17th February 2020. All times are in GMT+0 (London) time. During this time spreads may be wider and liquidity may be thinner. Bank holidays may also give rise to changes in the applicable swap rates.   Commodities  Monday 17th Febuary 2020 XAUUSD 23:01 Sun – 17:59 […]

Please note that the following trading hours will apply on Monday 17th February 2020. All times are in GMT+0 (London) time. During this time spreads may be wider and liquidity may be thinner. Bank holidays may also give rise to changes in the applicable swap rates.

 

Commodities  Monday 17th Febuary 2020
XAUUSD 23:01 Sun – 17:59 Mon
XAGUSD 23:00:01 Sun – 17:59:50 Mon
XPTUSD 23:00:01 Sun – 17:59:50 Mon
XPDUSD 23:00:01 Sun – 17:59:50 Mon
XTIUSD 23:00:01 Sun – 17:44:50 Mon
XNGUSD 23:00:01 Sun – 17:44:50 Mon
Índices
J225 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
SPX500 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
NDX 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
WS30 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
US stocks
All CLOSED

 


The rest of the assets will trade according to their usual trading time. As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

Upcoming Holidays in China and Australia

23 January 2020

Please be aware that the Chinese New Year will take place between January 24th and January 30th. Furthermore, Australia Day will be held on January 27th. Kindly note that during this time spreads may be wider and liquidity may be thinner. Also, the following amended trading hours will apply on Monday 27th January 2020. Time in […]

Please be aware that the Chinese New Year will take place between January 24th and January 30th. Furthermore, Australia Day will be held on January 27th. Kindly note that during this time spreads may be wider and liquidity may be thinner.

Also, the following amended trading hours will apply on Monday 27th January 2020. Time in GMT+0 (London) time.


 

Indices  Monday 27th January 2020
AUS200 06:10 – 22:00

 


The rest of the assets will trade according to their usual trading time.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

apalancamiento esma

Opening of orders in the XPDUSD asset blocked until further notice

22 January 2020

Due to the global palladium shortage and the impossibility of offering reasonable spreads due to the lack of liquidity, we’ve blocked the opening of trades in the XPDUSD asset until further notice. For any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out to us here or, if it’s about your specific case, via email at info@darwinex.com.

Due to the global palladium shortage and the impossibility of offering reasonable spreads due to the lack of liquidity, we’ve blocked the opening of trades in the XPDUSD asset until further notice. For any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out to us here or, if it’s about your specific case, via email at info@darwinex.com.

apalancamiento esma

Upcoming Holiday In New Zealand Resulting In The Possibility Of Wider Spread

16 January 2020

Please be aware that there is a public holiday in New Zealand on Monday, January 20th during which spreads may be wider and liquidity may be thinner. For any questions, reach out to info@darwinex.com.

Please be aware that there is a public holiday in New Zealand on Monday, January 20th during which spreads may be wider and liquidity may be thinner. For any questions, reach out to info@darwinex.com.

Margin increase for XAUUSD (Professional Clients only)

9 January 2020

Our margin requirement for the XAUUSD asset for Professional Clients is changing on Friday (January 10th 2020) around 17:00 GMT due to the US-Iran uncertainty. The new margin requirement will be 2% as opposed to the previous 1%. It will remain in place until further notice and will affect both existing and new positions. Kindly […]

Our margin requirement for the XAUUSD asset for Professional Clients is changing on Friday (January 10th 2020) around 17:00 GMT due to the US-Iran uncertainty.

The new margin requirement will be 2% as opposed to the previous 1%. It will remain in place until further notice and will affect both existing and new positions.

Kindly make sure you have enough available margin and equity in your account for the new margin level.

Need help? Please do not hesitate to contact us at info@darwinex.com.

Darwinex Trading Hours for the 2019 Christmas & New Year Holiday Period

18 December 2019

Please find below the Darwinex Trading Schedule for the 2019 Christmas and New Year Holiday Period. All times are displayed in UK time (GMT) and changes to regular trading hours are highlighted in red.

Christmas is around the corner!

Please find below the Darwinex Trading Schedule for the 2019 Christmas and New Year Holiday Period. All times are displayed in UK time (GMT) and changes to regular trading hours are highlighted in red.

Also note that during the Cristmas and New Year holiday period spreads may widen and swaps may be affected by the ‘turn’ effect. The ‘turn’ effect is a phenomenon that exists in financial markets which is caused by supply and demand for funding over key dates such as year or quarter-end. This can create anomalies in the forward curves for certain currencies, and we are already beginning to see this priced into the year-end swap points that we receive from our liquidity providers.

Further, you may want to check out what happens if you want to buy/sell a DARWIN which has underlying trades open with different opening/closing times.

Christmas 2019

DARWINs Tuesday 24th December Wednesday 25th December Thursday 26th December
All DARWINs 22:05 Mon – 21:59 Tue Closed 22:05 Wed – 21:59 Thu
FX Tuesday 24th December Wednesday 25th December Thursday 26th December
All FX Instruments 22:04:01 Mon – 21:59:50 Tue Closed 22:04:01 Wed – 21:59:50 Thu
Commodities Tuesday 24th December Wednesday 25th December Thursday 26th December
XAUUSD 23:01 Mon – 18:29 Tue Closed 23:01 Wed – 21:59 Thu
XAGUSD 23:00:01 Mon – 18:29:50 Tue Closed 23:00:01 Wed – 21:59:50 Thu
XPTUSD 23:00:01 Mon – 18:44:50 Tue Closed 23:00:01 Wed – 21:59:50 Thu
XPDUSD 23:00:01 Mon – 18:44:50 Tue Closed 23:00:01 Wed – 21:59:50 Thu
XTIUSD 23:00:01 Mon – 18:29:50 Tue Closed 23:00:01 Wed – 21:50:50 Thu
XNGUSD 23:00:01 Mon – 18:29:50 Tue Closed 23:00:01 Wed – 21:59:50 Thu
Indices Tuesday 24th December Wednesday 25th December Thursday 26th December
AUS200 23:00 Mon – 03:30 Tue Closed Closed
STOXX50E Closed Closed Closed
FCHI40 23:00 Mon – 13:00 Tue Closed Closed
GDAXI Closed Closed Closed
J225 23:00 Mon – 18:15 Tue Closed Closed
SPA35 07:00 – 13:00 Closed Closed
UK100 23:00 Mon – 12:50 Tue Closed Closed
SPX500 23:00 Mon – 18:15 Tue Closed Closed
NDX 23:00 Mon – 18:15 Tue Closed Closed
WS30 23:00 Mon – 18:15 Tue Closed Closed
US Stocks Tuesday 24th December Wednesday 25th December Thursday 26th December
All US stocks 14:31 – 17:59 Closed 14:31 – 20:59
Crypto Tuesday 24th December Wednesday 25th December Thursday 26th December
All Crypto Instruments 22:05 Mon – 22:00 Tue 22:05 Tue – 22:00 Wed 22:05 Wed – 22:00 Thu


New Year 2020

DARWINs Tuesday 31st December Wednesday 1st January Thursday 2nd January
All DARWINs 22:05 Mon – 21:59 Tue Closed 22:05 Wed – 21:59 Thu
FX Tuesday 31st December Wednesday 1st January Thursday 2nd January
All FX Instruments 22:04:01 Mon – 21:59:50 Tue Closed 22:04:01 Wed – 21:59:50 Thu
Commodities Tuesday 31st December Wednesday 1st January Thursday 2nd January
XAUUSD 23:01 Mon – 21:59 Tue Closed 23:01 Wed – 21:59 Thu
XAGUSD 23:00:01 Mon – 21:59:50 Tue Closed 23:00:01 Wed – 21:50:50 Thu
XPTUSD 23:00:01 Mon – 21:59:50 Tue Closed 23:00:01 Wed – 21:59:50 Thu
XPDUSD 23:00:01 Mon – 21:59:50 Tue Closed 23:00:01 Wed – 21:59:50 Thu
XTIUSD 23:00:01 Mon – 21:59:50 Tue Closed 23:00:01 Wed – 21:59:50 Thu
XNGUSD 23:00:01 Mon– 21:59:50 Tue Closed 23:00:01 Wed – 21:59:50 Thu
Indices Tuesday 31st December Wednesday 1st January Thursday 2nd January
AUS200 23:00 Mon – 03:30 Tue Closed 23:00 Wed – 22:00 Thu
STOXX50E Closed Closed 23:00 Wed – 22:00 Thu
FCHI40 23:00 Mon – 13:00 Tue Closed 23:00 Wed – 22:00 Thu
GDAXI Closed Closed 07:00 – 21:00
J225 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue Closed 23:00 Wed – 22:00 Thu
SPA35 07:00 – 13:00 Closed 07:00 – 19:00
UK100 23:00 Mon – 12:50 Tue Closed Closed
SPX500 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue Closed 23:00 Wed – 22:00 Thu
NDX 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue Closed 23:00 Wed – 22:00 Thu
WS30 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue Closed 23:00 Wed – 22:00 Thu
US Stocks Tuesday 31st December Wednesday 1st January Thursday 2nd January
All US stocks 14:31 – 20:59 Closed 14:31 – 20:59
Crypto Tuesday 31st December Wednesday 1st January Thursday 2nd January
All Crypto Instruments 22:05 Mon – 22:00 Tue 22:05 Tue – 22:00 Wed 22:05 Wed – 22:00 Thu

 


As always, if you have any queries, please feel free to contact us at info@darwinex.com.

The Darwinex Team wishes you a Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year!

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. -- % of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.