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Are FX markets playing crazy?

25 March 2015

More than 2 months after the SNB bloodbath, things should be returning to “normal” in FX markets… but are they?

Is last week’s 1-day dip then re-bound in the EURUSD ¨normal¨? How about the speed with which the USD approaches EUR?

FX Volatility

FXVolatility

The 6 USD TRN a day FX behemoth now seems jumpier than equity markets, and that’s not “normal”.

What if these are not freak-events, but the tail of a volatility wave?

How about bond markets?

Surely things ought to be more rationale in less speculative parts of town?

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Yes, the Greek tragedy will unfold. Surely that’s part of it. But Greece is a small-ish fish in the bigger pond – it really seems as though the rest of the pond is moving too.

Bi-polar trading, anyone?

The underlying theme is interest rate expectations. No-one, least of all the Fed, really knows how the Fed will tighten US interest rates. Similarly, with QE just starting and the ECB entering unknown territory, no-one really knows where the Euro economy is headed, one month before a major milestone for Greece (and the Euro), etc.

With more than your fair share of macro-economic unknowns, who’s surprised by volatilities spiking? Plus traders take sides: check EUR-USD positioning.

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That’s the kind of psychology that delivers (and follows) 22% value gain by the dollar vs. the US main commercial counterparts. It’s not happened in the last 40 years, but you can’t rule out it all happening again next year!

This is NOT a video-game on a trading screen. EURUSD has direct impact on absolute and relative global GDP growth (how import crazy will the US go?), debt servicing costs, commodity prices, etc. etc. This is a recurring them on the Financial Times in the next  3-5 years.

Implications for brokers and independent traders

Volatility is different things to different pockets. When it spikes, institutional money (focus: return OF capital) typically retreats into risk minimisation mode. To speculative money (focus: return ON capital)  this as a boon, the kind of environment to quickly build (and burn, and build again) a great reputation.

FX mean reversion is gone for now. “Hold on and recover when the ebb flows” can get any market making b-book broker out of a hole in normal conditions, but a client B-book over-exposed one way or the other could well be deadly now. Smart b-bookers will a-book more… passing the hot cookie to their LPs.

Problem is: how much risk appetite do they have post SNB? Established LPs may (partially or totally) withdraw as volatility mounts. Flows will perhaps land with less established LPs keener to pick coins in front of steam trains than the big boys.

Altogether, spreads ought to widen for the foreseeable future… which brings us to the implications for traders.

If you haven’t learnt the lesson yet, now is the time.

  • Investor capital is your ONLY viable business model.  You’re likelier to turn 3k into a million by playing the lottery than by trading your own capital with leverage.
  • Adjust your leverage. A 1:1 leverage EURUSD trade today is 2+ times riskier than 3 or 4 months ago.
  • That’s if you consider “average” moments. Spikes could well be significantly larger!
  • Do not trade with unregulated or lightly regulated broker-dealers.
  • Check not only your broker’s solvency, but their liquidity providers’.

Darwinex

It always pays to be an FCA regulated. As does offering FSCS protection up to 50.000 GBP and only offering liquid instruments on a 100% non-market making, pure broker basis.

Plus, this is a great learning opportunity for DARWIN risk management algorithms. Several extreme events in such a short time feed the event data-base, update risk policies and sharpen management scenarios. And with FX volatility making the headlines on a regular basis, expect new entrants into the market – which is not a bad thing.

Time to upgrade your trading?

 

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Bitcoin Cash (XBNUSD) trading suspended until further notice

7 November 2018

The BCH fork on November 15th may create a split in the BCH instrument resulting in two currencies, BCH and BSV. Due to the uncertainly around this event, at Darwinex we’ve decided to suspend opening of any new XBNUSD trades with immediate effect.

As traders trading cryptocurrency CFDs sure know, the BCH fork on November 15th may create a split in the BCH instrument (XBNUSD as provided by our liquidity provider LMAX) resulting in two currencies, BCH and BSV.

Due to the uncertainly around this event, at Darwinex we’ve decided to suspend opening of any new XBNUSD trades with immediate effect.

We’ll contact Darwinex traders with open positions in XBNUSD and recommend them to close their positions because as of November 15th our liquidity provider will stop offering liquidity for XBNUSD for an unknown period of time.

For any questions, please contact us at info@darwinex.com.

End of Daylight Saving Time in Europe (October 28th 2018)

22 October 2018

Please note that Daylight Saving Time ends in Europe on Sunday October 28th 2018 but our MT4 nd MT5 servers’ time is NOT changing until Sunday November 4th 2018 (when Daylight Saving Time ends in the US). This means that there will be 1 week (October 28th through November 2nd) where some markets will open 1 hour earlier than […]

Please note that Daylight Saving Time ends in Europe on Sunday October 28th 2018 but our MT4 nd MT5 servers’ time is NOT changing until Sunday November 4th 2018 (when Daylight Saving Time ends in the US).

This means that there will be 1 week (October 28th through November 2nd) where some markets will open 1 hour earlier than during European Daylight Saving Time (i.e. FX market will open at 21:01 GMT; commodities will open at 22:01 GMT, etc.).

 

Instrument Trading Hours in GMT
FX 21:05 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 21:01 daily) 
DARWINS 21:05 Sun – 21:00 Fri (except 21:00 – 21:01 daily)
COMMODITIES  
Gold 22:01 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 20:59 – 22:01 daily)
Silver 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
Platinum 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
Palladium 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
US Crude 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
Natural Gas 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
INDICES  
Australia 200 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
Europe 50 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
France 40 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
Germany 30 07:00 – 21:00 (Mon – Fri)
Spain 35 07:00 – 19:00 (Mon – Fri)
Japan 225 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
UK 100 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
US SPX 500 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
US Tech 100 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
Wall Street 30 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
US STOCKS 13:31 -19:59 (Mon – Fri)
CRYPTOCURRENCIES 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)

 

Trading hours will return to normal on Sunday November 4th 2018, allowing for the daily candle to close at the end of trading in New York each day which is widely considered the end of the trading day.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be glad to assist you with any question you may have!

 

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Starting October 24th, Fx and XAUUSD swaps will be charged in triple size on Wednesdays

16 October 2018

Please be informed that starting on Wednesday, October 24th 2018, Fx and XAUUSD swaps will be charged in triple size on Wednesdays (instead of Thursdays). Below you can find a brief summary of the different swaps charges for the assets we offer.    Instrument Swaps  FX Daily at 17:00 NY City time (in triple size on […]

Please be informed that starting on Wednesday, October 24th 2018, Fx and XAUUSD swaps will be charged in triple size on Wednesdays (instead of Thursdays).

Below you can find a brief summary of the different swaps charges for the assets we offer.

 


 Instrument Swaps 
FX Daily at 17:00 NY City time (in triple size on Wednesdays*)

Exceptions: USD/CAD and USD/TRY, charged triple size on Thursdays.

Commodities
Gold (XAUUSD) Daily at 17:00 NY City time (in triple size on Wednesdays*)
Rest of Commodities Daily at 17:00 NY City time (in triple size on Wednesdays)
Indices Daily on market close (in triple size on Fridays)
Stocks Daily on market close (in triple size on Fridays)
Cryptocurrencies Daily 17:00 NY City time (in triple size on Thursdays)

*Starting on Wednesday, October 24th 2018.

 

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

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Choose among several banks when sending funds to your Wallet

13 September 2018

When sending funds to your Wallet via bank transfer, you can now choose among several banks. These banks are: – Santander UK – NatWest – Banc Sabadell London Choose whichever you prefer as the destination bank of your monies. After When clicking “Next”, you’ll receive all the details for the bank transfer on the screen […]

When sending funds to your Wallet via bank transfer, you can now choose among several banks. These banks are:

  • – Santander UK
  • – NatWest
  • – Banc Sabadell London

bank transfer options

Choose whichever you prefer as the destination bank of your monies. After When clicking “Next”, you’ll receive all the details for the bank transfer on the screen and via email.

Amended Trading Hours due to U.S. Labour Day on September 3rd, 2018

30 August 2018

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming U.S. Labour Day on September 3rd, 2018. All times are in UK (BST) time.    Instrument Trading Hours on September 3rd 2018  COMMODITIES   Gold 23:01 Sun – 17:59 Mon Silver 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon Platinum 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon Palladium 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon US […]

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming U.S. Labour Day on September 3rd, 2018. All times are in UK (BST) time.

 


 Instrument Trading Hours on September 3rd 2018
 COMMODITIES  
Gold 23:01 Sun – 17:59 Mon
Silver 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
Platinum 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
Palladium 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
US Crude 23:00 Sun – 17:45 Mon
Natural Gas 23:00 Sun – 17:45 Mon
 INDICES  
Japan 225 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon 
 US SPX 500 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
 US Tech 100 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
Wall Street 30 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
US STOCKS
All US stocks CLOSED

 

The rest of the assets will trade according to their usual trading time. As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

UK100 index CFD will be closed on Monday 27th August

20 August 2018

Please note that the UK100 index CFD will be closed on Monday 27th August due to UK Summer Bank Holiday. All other assets will trade according to the usual trading hours. 

Please note that the UK100 index CFD will be closed on Monday 27th August due to UK Summer Bank Holiday. All other assets will trade according to the usual trading hours. 

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73 % of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.