BOARD

Are FX markets playing crazy?

25 March 2015

More than 2 months after the SNB bloodbath, things should be returning to “normal” in FX markets… but are they?

Is last week’s 1-day dip then re-bound in the EURUSD ¨normal¨? How about the speed with which the USD approaches EUR?

FX Volatility

FXVolatility

The 6 USD TRN a day FX behemoth now seems jumpier than equity markets, and that’s not “normal”.

What if these are not freak-events, but the tail of a volatility wave?

How about bond markets?

Surely things ought to be more rationale in less speculative parts of town?

1427218533

Yes, the Greek tragedy will unfold. Surely that’s part of it. But Greece is a small-ish fish in the bigger pond – it really seems as though the rest of the pond is moving too.

Bi-polar trading, anyone?

The underlying theme is interest rate expectations. No-one, least of all the Fed, really knows how the Fed will tighten US interest rates. Similarly, with QE just starting and the ECB entering unknown territory, no-one really knows where the Euro economy is headed, one month before a major milestone for Greece (and the Euro), etc.

With more than your fair share of macro-economic unknowns, who’s surprised by volatilities spiking? Plus traders take sides: check EUR-USD positioning.

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That’s the kind of psychology that delivers (and follows) 22% value gain by the dollar vs. the US main commercial counterparts. It’s not happened in the last 40 years, but you can’t rule out it all happening again next year!

This is NOT a video-game on a trading screen. EURUSD has direct impact on absolute and relative global GDP growth (how import crazy will the US go?), debt servicing costs, commodity prices, etc. etc. This is a recurring them on the Financial Times in the next  3-5 years.

Implications for brokers and independent traders

Volatility is different things to different pockets. When it spikes, institutional money (focus: return OF capital) typically retreats into risk minimisation mode. To speculative money (focus: return ON capital)  this as a boon, the kind of environment to quickly build (and burn, and build again) a great reputation.

FX mean reversion is gone for now. “Hold on and recover when the ebb flows” can get any market making b-book broker out of a hole in normal conditions, but a client B-book over-exposed one way or the other could well be deadly now. Smart b-bookers will a-book more… passing the hot cookie to their LPs.

Problem is: how much risk appetite do they have post SNB? Established LPs may (partially or totally) withdraw as volatility mounts. Flows will perhaps land with less established LPs keener to pick coins in front of steam trains than the big boys.

Altogether, spreads ought to widen for the foreseeable future… which brings us to the implications for traders.

If you haven’t learnt the lesson yet, now is the time.

  • Investor capital is your ONLY viable business model.  You’re likelier to turn 3k into a million by playing the lottery than by trading your own capital with leverage.
  • Adjust your leverage. A 1:1 leverage EURUSD trade today is 2+ times riskier than 3 or 4 months ago.
  • That’s if you consider “average” moments. Spikes could well be significantly larger!
  • Do not trade with unregulated or lightly regulated broker-dealers.
  • Check not only your broker’s solvency, but their liquidity providers’.

Darwinex

It always pays to be an FCA regulated. As does offering FSCS protection up to 50.000 GBP and only offering liquid instruments on a 100% non-market making, pure broker basis.

Plus, this is a great learning opportunity for DARWIN risk management algorithms. Several extreme events in such a short time feed the event data-base, update risk policies and sharpen management scenarios. And with FX volatility making the headlines on a regular basis, expect new entrants into the market – which is not a bad thing.

Time to upgrade your trading?

 

Last News

Amended Trading Hours for Australia Day (26 January 2021)

21 January 2021

Please be aware that Australia Day will be held on 26 January 2021. Kindly note that during this time spreads may be wider and liquidity may be thinner. Also, the following amended trading hours will apply. Indices  Tuesday 26 January 2021 AUS200 06:11 – 22:00 UTC The rest of the assets will trade according to their usual […]

Please be aware that Australia Day will be held on 26 January 2021. Kindly note that during this time spreads may be wider and liquidity may be thinner.

Also, the following amended trading hours will apply.

Indices  Tuesday 26 January 2021
AUS200 06:11 – 22:00 UTC

The rest of the assets will trade according to their usual trading time.

See the full calendar of amended trading hours.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

Trading Hours for the US Martin Luther King Day on 18 January 2021

11 January 2021

Please note the amended trading hours that will apply on Monday 18 January 2021.

Please note the amended trading hours that will apply on Monday 18 January 2021.

🕤 All times in the following table are UTC (Coordinated Universal Time).
⚠️ During bank holidays spreads may be wider and liquidity may be thinner. They usually also give rise to changes to the applicable swap rates.
Commodities   Monday 18 January 2021
XAUUSD Early close at 17:43 UTC
XAGUSD Early close at 17:59 UTC
XTIUSD Early close 17:44 UTC
XNGUSD Early close 17:44 UTC
Indices
J225 Early close at 17:58 UTC
SPX500 Early close at 17:58 UTC
NDX Early close at 17:58 UTC
WS30 Early close at 17:58 UTC
US Stocks
All US stocks Closed

 

 

 

 

Related information:

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

brexit

Brexit, the endgame: what you need to know in a no-deal Brexit scenario

16 December 2020

With the year coming to an end and Brexit coming into force on January 1st 2021, we would like to remind you that Darwinex is Brexit ready. Below are some updates for both existing and new customers. Please note that these will be relevant only in the case of a no-deal Brexit.

With the year coming to an end and Brexit coming into force on January 1st 2021, we would like to remind you that Darwinex is Brexit ready. Below are some updates for both existing and new customers. Please note that these will be relevant only in the case of a no-deal Brexit.

No-deal Brexit for existing EU customers

What changes in your relationship with FCA-regulated Darwinex in a no-deal Brexit scenario? In short: nothing, if you’re an existing customer.

  1. The FCA continues to protect your right to trade with us.
  2. Your monies remain with Santander UK, Natwest Bank or Sabadell UK in London.
  3. Your Funds enjoy FSCS deposit protection and Lloyd’s insurance for up to GBP 500,000.

Brexit doesn’t impair your right to trade with counterparties in 3rd countries outside the EU. You could trade with Australian brokers, you continue to enjoy the right to trade with UK brokers.

No-deal Brexit for new EU customers

For Darwinex, a no-deal Brexit scenario means restrictions to market to new EU customers with our FCA entity. We’ll shortly share details of our new license in the EU, which will offer identical conditions to our UK entity.

Our FCA-regulated UK entity will, in any case, continue accepting EU customers whenever reverse solicitation applies. Reverse solicitation means traders and investors approaching Darwinex on their own initiative and Darwinex not having solicited them to trade or invest.

We’ve recorded a podcast episode about Brexit and prepared a Brexit FAQ. Feel free to send to info@darwinex.com any questions you might have and we’ll answer them for everyone’s benefit!

Navidad

Darwinex Trading Hours for the 2020 Christmas & New Year Holiday Period

14 December 2020

The Darwinex Trading Schedule for the 2020 Christmas and New Year Holiday Period is already available in the calendar of Amended Darwinex Trading Hours.

Christmas is around the corner!

The Darwinex Trading Schedule for the 2020 Christmas and New Year Holiday Period is already available in the calendar of Amended Darwinex Trading Hours.

Note that during the Cristmas and New Year holiday period spreads may widen and swaps may be affected by the ‘turn’ effect. The ‘turn’ effect is a phenomenon that exists in financial markets which is caused by supply and demand for funding over key dates such as year or quarter-end. This can create anomalies in the forward curves for certain currencies, and we are already beginning to see this priced into the year-end swap points that we receive from our liquidity providers.

Further, you may want to check out what happens if you want to buy/sell a DARWIN which has underlying trades open with different opening/closing times.

As always, if you have any queries, please feel free to contact us at info@darwinex.com.

The Darwinex Team wishes you a Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year!

Trading Hours for the 2020 US Thanksgiving Holidays

17 November 2020

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming US Thanksgiving holiday period on 26th and 27th of November 2020.

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming US Thanksgiving holiday period on 26th and 27th of November 2020.

During bank holidays spreads may be wider and liquidity may be thinner. They usually also give rise to changes to the applicable swap rates.

All times are UTC.

 Instrument November 26th 2020 November 27th 2020
COMMODITIES
XAUUSD Close at 17:44:00
Close at 18:29:00
XAGUSD
Close at 17:59:50
Close at 18:14:50
XTIUSD
Close at 17:44:50
Close at 18:29:50
XNGUSD
Close at 17:44:50
Close at 18:29:50
INDICES
J225
Close at 18:00
Close at 18:15
SPX500
Close at 18:00
Close at 18:15
NDX
Close at 18:00
Close at 18:15
WS30
Close at 18:00
Close at 18:15
STOCKS
US Stocks Closed
Close at 17:59

The rest of the assets will trade according to their usual trading time.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

apalancamiento esma

NextEra Energy Stock Split 4:1

19 October 2020

The NextEra Energy stock split is approaching. At Darwinex we will apply the stock split on October 27th.

The NextEra Energy stock split is approaching. $NEE shares will be split 4-for-1. The number of shares will be multiplied by 4 and share prices divided by this same value.

At Darwinex we will apply the stock split on Tuesday October 27th at market open.

In live accounts we will adjust open position to the split without the need to close and reopen trades. Pending orders will be cancelled. In MT5, the hedged positions will be closed and the split will be applied to the resulting net position.

In demo accounts we will close all open positions in $NEE on Monday afternoon. Pending orders will be cancelled.

$NEE stocks will be available for trading from Tuesday, October 27th, at the post-split price.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. -- % of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.