BOARD

Are FX markets playing crazy?

25 March 2015

More than 2 months after the SNB bloodbath, things should be returning to “normal” in FX markets… but are they?

Is last week’s 1-day dip then re-bound in the EURUSD ¨normal¨? How about the speed with which the USD approaches EUR?

FX Volatility

FXVolatility

The 6 USD TRN a day FX behemoth now seems jumpier than equity markets, and that’s not “normal”.

What if these are not freak-events, but the tail of a volatility wave?

How about bond markets?

Surely things ought to be more rationale in less speculative parts of town?

1427218533

Yes, the Greek tragedy will unfold. Surely that’s part of it. But Greece is a small-ish fish in the bigger pond – it really seems as though the rest of the pond is moving too.

Bi-polar trading, anyone?

The underlying theme is interest rate expectations. No-one, least of all the Fed, really knows how the Fed will tighten US interest rates. Similarly, with QE just starting and the ECB entering unknown territory, no-one really knows where the Euro economy is headed, one month before a major milestone for Greece (and the Euro), etc.

With more than your fair share of macro-economic unknowns, who’s surprised by volatilities spiking? Plus traders take sides: check EUR-USD positioning.

1427218533-1

That’s the kind of psychology that delivers (and follows) 22% value gain by the dollar vs. the US main commercial counterparts. It’s not happened in the last 40 years, but you can’t rule out it all happening again next year!

This is NOT a video-game on a trading screen. EURUSD has direct impact on absolute and relative global GDP growth (how import crazy will the US go?), debt servicing costs, commodity prices, etc. etc. This is a recurring them on the Financial Times in the next  3-5 years.

Implications for brokers and independent traders

Volatility is different things to different pockets. When it spikes, institutional money (focus: return OF capital) typically retreats into risk minimisation mode. To speculative money (focus: return ON capital)  this as a boon, the kind of environment to quickly build (and burn, and build again) a great reputation.

FX mean reversion is gone for now. “Hold on and recover when the ebb flows” can get any market making b-book broker out of a hole in normal conditions, but a client B-book over-exposed one way or the other could well be deadly now. Smart b-bookers will a-book more… passing the hot cookie to their LPs.

Problem is: how much risk appetite do they have post SNB? Established LPs may (partially or totally) withdraw as volatility mounts. Flows will perhaps land with less established LPs keener to pick coins in front of steam trains than the big boys.

Altogether, spreads ought to widen for the foreseeable future… which brings us to the implications for traders.

If you haven’t learnt the lesson yet, now is the time.

  • Investor capital is your ONLY viable business model.  You’re likelier to turn 3k into a million by playing the lottery than by trading your own capital with leverage.
  • Adjust your leverage. A 1:1 leverage EURUSD trade today is 2+ times riskier than 3 or 4 months ago.
  • That’s if you consider “average” moments. Spikes could well be significantly larger!
  • Do not trade with unregulated or lightly regulated broker-dealers.
  • Check not only your broker’s solvency, but their liquidity providers’.

Darwinex

It always pays to be an FCA regulated. As does offering FSCS protection up to 50.000 GBP and only offering liquid instruments on a 100% non-market making, pure broker basis.

Plus, this is a great learning opportunity for DARWIN risk management algorithms. Several extreme events in such a short time feed the event data-base, update risk policies and sharpen management scenarios. And with FX volatility making the headlines on a regular basis, expect new entrants into the market – which is not a bad thing.

Time to upgrade your trading?

 

Last News

UK100 Closed on August 26th

14 August 2019

Please note that the UK100 index CFD will be closed on Monday August 26th due to UK Summer Bank Holiday. All other assets will trade according to the usual trading hours. 

Please note that the UK100 index CFD will be closed on Monday August 26th due to UK Summer Bank Holiday. All other assets will trade according to the usual trading hours.

DAX Trading Hours Soon to be Extended

9 July 2019

The CFD of the DAX (GDAXI) start trading with an extended schedule as of Monday July 22nd, 2019.

The CFD of the DAX (GDAXI) will soon – probably as of Monday July 22nd – start trading with an extended schedule.

The current schedule is as follows:

  • 07:00 – 21:00 (London) Mon-Thu
  • 07:00 – 20:55 (London) Fri

The extended schedule will be as follows:

  • 01:30 – 21:00 (London) Mon-Thu
  • 01:30 – 20:55 (London) Fri

We’ll update this post with the final implementation date of the extended schedule as soon as possible.

Update on July 18th: the DAX will start trading according to the new schedule on Monday July 22nd.

Note that during the night, GDAXI usually has a wider spread and a lower liquidity than during the day.

Please get in touch at info@darwinex.com for any questions you may have.

apalancamiento esma

The FCA Makes ESMA’s CFD Restrictions Permanent

4 July 2019

The new measure doesn’t affect us more than the ESMA intervention already did. And it affected us in a positive way, contributing to the improvement of our clients’ performance.

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) made the European Authority’s (ESMA) CFD restrictions permanent this week.

Some reactions to this we saw in user forums implied this was a “ban” of Contracts for Differentes (CFDs). Some even said it was “the end of Darwinex”.

We’d like to clarify that the FCA’s measure makes the restrictions we already applied last year permanent. But nothing else changes. It’s only that this time it’s the national regulator that said this while last year it was the ESMA.

The new measure doesn’t affect us more than the ESMA intervention already did. And it affected us in a positive way, contributing to the improvement of our clients’ performance.

Trading Schedule for the US Independence Day on 3rd and 4th July 2019

27 June 2019

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours (in red) for the upcoming US Independence Day on 3 & 4 July 2019. All times are in UK (BST) time.

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours (in red) for the upcoming US Independence Day on 3 & 4 July 2019. All times are in UK (BST) time.

 

FX Wednesday 3rd July Thursday 4th July
All FX Instruments 22:05 Tue – 22:00 Wed 22:05 Wed – 22:00 Thu
DARWINs 22:05 Tue – 21:59 Wed 22:05 Tue – 21:59 Wed
Commodities
Gold 23:01 Tue – 21:59 Wed *23:01 Wed – 18:00 Thu 
Silver 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed *23:00 Wed – 18:00 Thu 
Platinum 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed *23:00 Wed – 18:00 Thu 
Palladium 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed *23:00 Wed – 18:00 Thu 
US Crude 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed *23:00 Wed – 17:45 Thu 
US Natural Gas 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed *23:00 Wed – 17:45 Thu 
Indices
AUS200 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed 23:00 Wed – 22:00 Thu
STOXX50E 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed 23:00 Wed – 22:00 Thu
FCHI40 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed 23:00 Wed – 22:00 Thu
GDAXI 07:00 – 21:00 07:00 – 21:00
J225 *23:00 Tue – 18:15 Wed *23:00 Wed – 18:00 Thu 
SPA35 07:00 – 19:00 07:00 – 19:00
UK100 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed 23:00 Wed – 22:00 Thu
SPX500 *23:00 Tue – 18:15 Wed *23:00 Wed – 18:00 Thu
NDX *23:00 Tue – 18:15 Wed *23:00 Wed – 18:00 Thu 
WS30 *23:00 Tue – 18:15 Wed *23:00 Wed – 18:00 Thu
US stocks 14:31 – 20:59 CLOSED
 
Crypto
All Crypto Instruments 22:05 Tue – 22:00 Wed 22:05 Wed – 22:00 Thu

 

 

The DARWIN Exchange will remain open even if the underlying assets’ market is closed. Should you want to know the standard procedure when you buy/sell a DARWIN whose underlying asset market is closed, we recommend you to read the following Help Center article: What happens if you want to buy/sell a DARWIN which has underlying trades open with different opening/closing times?

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

Australia Public Holiday on 10th June 2019

5 June 2019

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming Bank Holiday in Australia on 10th June 2019 (all times are in UK time).

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming bank holiday in Australia on 10th June 2019. All times are in UK (BST) time.

Indices  Monday 10th June 2019
AUS200 08:10 – 22:00

 

The rest of the assets will trade according to their usual trading time.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

apalancamiento esma

Upcoming holiday in New Zealand resulting in the possibility of wider spreads and thinner liquidity

30 May 2019

Please be aware that there is a bank holiday in New Zealand on Monday June 3rd. Therefore, during this time, spreads may be wider and liquidity may be thinner for all NZD-related assets. For any questions, we’re one email away, at info@darwinex.com.

Please be aware that there is a bank holiday in New Zealand on Monday June 3rd.

Therefore, during this time, spreads may be wider and liquidity may be thinner for all NZD-related assets.

For any questions, we’re one email away, at info@darwinex.com.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66 % of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.