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Are FX markets playing crazy?

25 March 2015

More than 2 months after the SNB bloodbath, things should be returning to “normal” in FX markets… but are they?

Is last week’s 1-day dip then re-bound in the EURUSD ¨normal¨? How about the speed with which the USD approaches EUR?

FX Volatility

FXVolatility

The 6 USD TRN a day FX behemoth now seems jumpier than equity markets, and that’s not “normal”.

What if these are not freak-events, but the tail of a volatility wave?

How about bond markets?

Surely things ought to be more rationale in less speculative parts of town?

1427218533

Yes, the Greek tragedy will unfold. Surely that’s part of it. But Greece is a small-ish fish in the bigger pond – it really seems as though the rest of the pond is moving too.

Bi-polar trading, anyone?

The underlying theme is interest rate expectations. No-one, least of all the Fed, really knows how the Fed will tighten US interest rates. Similarly, with QE just starting and the ECB entering unknown territory, no-one really knows where the Euro economy is headed, one month before a major milestone for Greece (and the Euro), etc.

With more than your fair share of macro-economic unknowns, who’s surprised by volatilities spiking? Plus traders take sides: check EUR-USD positioning.

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That’s the kind of psychology that delivers (and follows) 22% value gain by the dollar vs. the US main commercial counterparts. It’s not happened in the last 40 years, but you can’t rule out it all happening again next year!

This is NOT a video-game on a trading screen. EURUSD has direct impact on absolute and relative global GDP growth (how import crazy will the US go?), debt servicing costs, commodity prices, etc. etc. This is a recurring them on the Financial Times in the next  3-5 years.

Implications for brokers and independent traders

Volatility is different things to different pockets. When it spikes, institutional money (focus: return OF capital) typically retreats into risk minimisation mode. To speculative money (focus: return ON capital)  this as a boon, the kind of environment to quickly build (and burn, and build again) a great reputation.

FX mean reversion is gone for now. “Hold on and recover when the ebb flows” can get any market making b-book broker out of a hole in normal conditions, but a client B-book over-exposed one way or the other could well be deadly now. Smart b-bookers will a-book more… passing the hot cookie to their LPs.

Problem is: how much risk appetite do they have post SNB? Established LPs may (partially or totally) withdraw as volatility mounts. Flows will perhaps land with less established LPs keener to pick coins in front of steam trains than the big boys.

Altogether, spreads ought to widen for the foreseeable future… which brings us to the implications for traders.

If you haven’t learnt the lesson yet, now is the time.

  • Investor capital is your ONLY viable business model.  You’re likelier to turn 3k into a million by playing the lottery than by trading your own capital with leverage.
  • Adjust your leverage. A 1:1 leverage EURUSD trade today is 2+ times riskier than 3 or 4 months ago.
  • That’s if you consider “average” moments. Spikes could well be significantly larger!
  • Do not trade with unregulated or lightly regulated broker-dealers.
  • Check not only your broker’s solvency, but their liquidity providers’.

Darwinex

It always pays to be an FCA regulated. As does offering FSCS protection up to 50.000 GBP and only offering liquid instruments on a 100% non-market making, pure broker basis.

Plus, this is a great learning opportunity for DARWIN risk management algorithms. Several extreme events in such a short time feed the event data-base, update risk policies and sharpen management scenarios. And with FX volatility making the headlines on a regular basis, expect new entrants into the market – which is not a bad thing.

Time to upgrade your trading?

 

Last News

Trading Hours for the US Martin Luther King Day on 21st January 2019

15 January 2019

Please note that the following trading hours will apply on Monday 21st January 2019. All times are in GMT+0 (London) time. Commodities   Monday 21st January 2019 Gold 23:01 Sun – 18:00 Mon Silver 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon Platinum 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon Palladium 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon US Crude 23:00 Sun – 17:45 […]

Please note that the following trading hours will apply on Monday 21st January 2019. All times are in GMT+0 (London) time.

Commodities   Monday 21st January 2019
Gold 23:01 Sun – 18:00 Mon
Silver 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
Platinum 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
Palladium 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
US Crude 23:00 Sun – 17:45 Mon
US Natural Gas 23:00 Sun – 17:45 Mon
Indices
J225 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
SPX500 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
NDX 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon
WS30 23:00 Sun – 18:00 Mon

 


The rest of the assets will trade according to their usual trading time.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

Navidad

Darwinex Trading Hours for the 2018 Christmas & New Year Holiday Period

18 December 2018

Christmas is around the corner! Please find below the Darwinex Trading Schedule for the 2018 Christmas and New Year Holiday Period (all times are displayed in UK time and changes to regular trading hours are highlighted in red). Also note that during the Cristmas and New Year holiday period spreads may widen and swaps may […]

Christmas is around the corner!

Please find below the Darwinex Trading Schedule for the 2018 Christmas and New Year Holiday Period (all times are displayed in UK time and changes to regular trading hours are highlighted in red).

Also note that during the Cristmas and New Year holiday period spreads may widen and swaps may be affected by the ‘turn’ effect. The ‘turn’ effect is a phenomenon that exists in financial markets which is caused by supply and demand for funding over key dates such as year or quarter-end. This can create anomalies in the forward curves for certain currencies, and we are already beginning to see this priced into the year-end swap points that we receive from our liquidity providers.

Christmas 2018

DARWINs Monday 24th December Tuesday 25th December Wednesday 26th December
All DARWINs 22:05 Sun – 18:45 Mon Closed 22:05 Tue – 21:59 Wed
FX Monday 24th December Tuesday 25th December Wednesday 26th December
All FX Instruments 22:05 Sun – 18:45 Mon Closed 22:01:01 Tue – 21:59:50 Wed
Commodities Monday 24th December Tuesday 25th December Wednesday 26th December
Gold 23:01 Sun – 18:45 Mon Closed 23:01 Tue – 21:59 Wed
Silver 23:00 Sun – 18:45 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 21:50:50 Wed
Platinum 23:00 Sun – 18:45 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
Palladium 23:00 Sun – 18:45 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
US Crude 23:00 Sun – 18:30 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
US Natural Gas 23:00 Sun – 18:30 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
Indices Monday 24th December Tuesday 25th December Wednesday 26th December
AUS200 23:00 Sun – 03:30 Mon Closed Closed
STOXX50E Closed Closed Closed
FCHI40 23:00 Sun – 13:00 Mon Closed Closed
GDAXI Closed Closed Closed
J225 23:00 Sun – 18:15 Mon Closed Closed
SPA35 07:00 – 13:00 Closed Closed
UK100 23:00 Sun – 12:50 Mon Closed Closed
SPX500 23:00 Sun – 18:15 Mon Closed Closed
NDX 23:00 Sun – 18:15 Mon Closed Closed
WS30 23:00 Sun – 18:15 Mon Closed Closed
US Stocks Monday 24th December Tuesday 25th December Wednesday 26th December
All US stocks 14:31 – 17:59 Closed 14:31 – 20:59
Crypto Monday 24th December Tuesday 25th December Wednesday 26th December
All Crypto Instruments 22:05 Sun – 22:00 Mon 22:05 Mon – 22:00 Tue 22:05 Tue – 22:00 Wed


New Year 2019

DARWINs Monday 31st December Tuesday 1st January Wednesday 2nd January
All DARWINs 22:05 Sun – 21:59 Mon Closed 22:05 Tue – 21:59 Wed
FX Monday 31st December Tuesday 1st January Wednesday 2nd January
All FX Instruments 22:05 Sun – 21:59:50 Mon Closed 22:01:01 Tue – 21:59:50 Wed
Commodities Monday 31st December Tuesday 1st January Wednesday 2nd January
Gold 23:01 Sun – 21:59 Mon Closed 23:01 Tue – 21:59 Wed
Silver 23:00 Sun – 21:59:50 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 21:50:50 Wed
Platinum 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
Palladium 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
US Crude 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
US Natural Gas 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
Indices Monday 31st December Tuesday 1st January Wednesday 2nd January
AUS200 23:00 Sun – 03:30 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
STOXX50E Closed Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
FCHI40 23:00 Sun – 13:00 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
GDAXI Closed Closed 07:00 – 21:00
J225 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
SPA35 07:00 – 13:00 Closed 07:00 – 19:00
UK100 23:00 Sun – 12:50 Mon Closed Closed
SPX500 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
NDX 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
WS30 23:00 Sun – 22:00 Mon Closed 23:00 Tue – 22:00 Wed
US Stocks Monday 31st December Tuesday 1st January Wednesday 2nd January
All US stocks 14:31 – 20:59 Closed 14:31 – 20:59
Crypto Monday 31st December Tuesday 1st January Wednesday 2nd January
All Crypto Instruments 22:05 Sun – 22:00 Mon 22:05 Mon – 22:00 Tue 22:05 Tue – 22:00 Wed

 


As always, if you have any queries, please feel free to contact us at info@darwinex.com.

The Darwinex Team wishes you a Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year!

apalancamiento esma

UK Parliament Vote on EU Withdrawal Bill (11 December 2018)

9 December 2018

We would like to remind you that the UK Parliament will vote on the EU Withdrawal Bill on 11th December 2018. There is a high degree of uncertainty as to the outcome of the vote and all GBP currency crosses are likely to experience significant volatility with increased risk of market gaps. It is important that you […]

We would like to remind you that the UK Parliament will vote on the EU Withdrawal Bill on 11th December 2018.

There is a high degree of uncertainty as to the outcome of the vote and all GBP currency crosses are likely to experience significant volatility with increased risk of market gaps.

It is important that you have sufficient margin coverage and are comfortable with the exposure on your account as our margin requirements may change going into the vote or depending on the outcome of the vote.

Please feel free to contact us at info@darwinex.com should you need assistance in this regard.

Amended Trading Hours US National Day of Mourning on December 5th 2018

4 December 2018

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming US National Day of Mourning on December 5th 2018. All times are in UK (GMT+0) time.    Instrument December 5th 2018  INDICES    US SPX 500 23:00 Tue – 14:45 Wed  US Tech 100 23:00 Tue – 14:45 Wed Wall Street 30 23:00 Tue – 14:45 Wed […]

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming US National Day of Mourning on December 5th 2018. All times are in UK (GMT+0) time.


 

 Instrument December 5th 2018
 INDICES  
 US SPX 500 23:00 Tue – 14:45 Wed
 US Tech 100 23:00 Tue – 14:45 Wed
Wall Street 30 23:00 Tue – 14:45 Wed
 STOCKS  
US Stocks CLOSED

 


The rest of the assets will trade according to their usual trading time. As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

Amended Trading Hours for the 2018 US Thanksgiving Holidays (Nov. 22nd and 23rd)

20 November 2018

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming US Thanksgiving holiday period on 22nd and 23rd of November 2018. All times are in UK (GMT+0) time.    Instrument November 22nd 2018 November 23rd 2018  COMMODITIES     Gold 23:01 Wed – 17:59 Thu 23:01 Thu – 18:40 Fri Silver 23:00 Wed – 17:59 Thu 23:00 Thu – […]

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming US Thanksgiving holiday period on 22nd and 23rd of November 2018. All times are in UK (GMT+0) time.

 


 Instrument November 22nd 2018 November 23rd 2018
 COMMODITIES    
Gold 23:01 Wed – 17:59 Thu 23:01 Thu – 18:40 Fri
Silver 23:00 Wed – 17:59 Thu 23:00 Thu – 18:40 Fri
Platinum 23:00 Wed – 17:59 Thu 23:00 Thu – 18:40 Fri
Palladium 23:00 Wed – 17:59 Thu 23:00 Thu – 18:40 Fri
US Crude 23:00 Wed – 17:44 Thu 23:00 Thu – 17:25 Fri
Natural Gas 23:00 Wed – 17:44 Thu 23:00 Thu – 17:25 Fri
 INDICES    
Japan 225 23:00 Wed – 17:59 Thu  23:00 Thu – 18:10 Fri 
 US SPX 500 23:00 Wed – 17:59 Thu 23:00 Thu – 18:10 Fri 
 US Tech 100 23:00 Wed – 17:59 Thu 23:00 Thu – 18:10 Fri 
Wall Street 30 23:00 Wed – 17:59 Thu 23:00 Thu – 18:10 Fri 
 STOCKS    
US Stocks CLOSED 14:31 Fri – 17:59 Fri 

 

The rest of the assets will trade according to their usual trading time. As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

apalancamiento esma

Bitcoin Cash (XBNUSD) trading suspended until further notice

7 November 2018

The BCH fork on November 15th may create a split in the BCH instrument resulting in two currencies, BCH and BSV. Due to the uncertainly around this event, at Darwinex we’ve decided to suspend opening of any new XBNUSD trades with immediate effect.

As traders trading cryptocurrency CFDs sure know, the BCH fork on November 15th may create a split in the BCH instrument (XBNUSD as provided by our liquidity provider LMAX) resulting in two currencies, BCH and BSV.

Due to the uncertainly around this event, at Darwinex we’ve decided to suspend opening of any new XBNUSD trades with immediate effect.

We’ll contact Darwinex traders with open positions in XBNUSD and recommend them to close their positions because as of November 15th our liquidity provider will stop offering liquidity for XBNUSD for an unknown period of time.

For any questions, please contact us at info@darwinex.com.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77 % of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.