BOARD

Are FX markets playing crazy?

25 March 2015

More than 2 months after the SNB bloodbath, things should be returning to “normal” in FX markets… but are they?

Is last week’s 1-day dip then re-bound in the EURUSD ¨normal¨? How about the speed with which the USD approaches EUR?

FX Volatility

FXVolatility

The 6 USD TRN a day FX behemoth now seems jumpier than equity markets, and that’s not “normal”.

What if these are not freak-events, but the tail of a volatility wave?

How about bond markets?

Surely things ought to be more rationale in less speculative parts of town?

1427218533

Yes, the Greek tragedy will unfold. Surely that’s part of it. But Greece is a small-ish fish in the bigger pond – it really seems as though the rest of the pond is moving too.

Bi-polar trading, anyone?

The underlying theme is interest rate expectations. No-one, least of all the Fed, really knows how the Fed will tighten US interest rates. Similarly, with QE just starting and the ECB entering unknown territory, no-one really knows where the Euro economy is headed, one month before a major milestone for Greece (and the Euro), etc.

With more than your fair share of macro-economic unknowns, who’s surprised by volatilities spiking? Plus traders take sides: check EUR-USD positioning.

1427218533-1

That’s the kind of psychology that delivers (and follows) 22% value gain by the dollar vs. the US main commercial counterparts. It’s not happened in the last 40 years, but you can’t rule out it all happening again next year!

This is NOT a video-game on a trading screen. EURUSD has direct impact on absolute and relative global GDP growth (how import crazy will the US go?), debt servicing costs, commodity prices, etc. etc. This is a recurring them on the Financial Times in the next  3-5 years.

Implications for brokers and independent traders

Volatility is different things to different pockets. When it spikes, institutional money (focus: return OF capital) typically retreats into risk minimisation mode. To speculative money (focus: return ON capital)  this as a boon, the kind of environment to quickly build (and burn, and build again) a great reputation.

FX mean reversion is gone for now. “Hold on and recover when the ebb flows” can get any market making b-book broker out of a hole in normal conditions, but a client B-book over-exposed one way or the other could well be deadly now. Smart b-bookers will a-book more… passing the hot cookie to their LPs.

Problem is: how much risk appetite do they have post SNB? Established LPs may (partially or totally) withdraw as volatility mounts. Flows will perhaps land with less established LPs keener to pick coins in front of steam trains than the big boys.

Altogether, spreads ought to widen for the foreseeable future… which brings us to the implications for traders.

If you haven’t learnt the lesson yet, now is the time.

  • Investor capital is your ONLY viable business model.  You’re likelier to turn 3k into a million by playing the lottery than by trading your own capital with leverage.
  • Adjust your leverage. A 1:1 leverage EURUSD trade today is 2+ times riskier than 3 or 4 months ago.
  • That’s if you consider “average” moments. Spikes could well be significantly larger!
  • Do not trade with unregulated or lightly regulated broker-dealers.
  • Check not only your broker’s solvency, but their liquidity providers’.

Darwinex

It always pays to be an FCA regulated. As does offering FSCS protection up to 50.000 GBP and only offering liquid instruments on a 100% non-market making, pure broker basis.

Plus, this is a great learning opportunity for DARWIN risk management algorithms. Several extreme events in such a short time feed the event data-base, update risk policies and sharpen management scenarios. And with FX volatility making the headlines on a regular basis, expect new entrants into the market – which is not a bad thing.

Time to upgrade your trading?

 

Last News
apalancamiento esma

NextEra Energy Stock Split 4:1

19 October 2020

The NextEra Energy stock split is approaching. At Darwinex we will apply the stock split on October 27th.

The NextEra Energy stock split is approaching. $NEE shares will be split 4-for-1. The number of shares will be multiplied by 4 and share prices divided by this same value.

At Darwinex we will apply the stock split on Tuesday October 27th at market open.

In live accounts we will adjust open position to the split without the need to close and reopen trades. Pending orders will be cancelled. In MT5, the hedged positions will be closed and the split will be applied to the resulting net position.

In demo accounts we will close all open positions in $NEE on Monday afternoon. Pending orders will be cancelled.

$NEE stocks will be available for trading from Tuesday, October 27th, at the post-split price.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

End of Daylight Saving Time in Europe (October 25th 2020)

Please note that Daylight Saving Time (DST) ends in Europe on Sunday October 25th 2020 but our MT4 nd MT5 servers’ time is not changing until Sunday November 1st 2020 when DST ends in the US.

Please note that Daylight Saving Time (DST) ends in Europe on Sunday October 25th 2020 but our MT4 nd MT5 servers’ time is not changing until Sunday November 1st 2020 when DST ends in the US.

This means that there will be 1 week (October 25th through November 1st) where, for European users, most markets will open 1 hour earlier than during European DST, e.g. FX market will open at 21:04:01 GMT.

Instrument Trading Hours (GMT)
FX 21:05 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 20:59:50 – 21:04:01 daily) 
DARWINS 21:05 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 20:59 – 21:05 daily)
COMM.  
XAUUSD 22:01 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 20:59 – 22:01 daily)
XAGUSD 22:00:01 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 20:59:50 – 22:00:01 daily)
XTIUSD 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00:01 – 22:00 daily)
XNGUSD 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00:01 – 22:00 daily)
INDICES  
AUS200 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
STOXX50 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
FCHI40 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
GDAXI 01:30 – 21:00 (Mon – Fri)
SPA35 07:00 – 19:00 (Mon – Fri)
J225 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
UK100 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
SPX500 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
NDX 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
WS30 22:00 Sun – 20:55 Fri (except 21:00 – 22:00 daily)
US STOCKS 13:31 -19:59 (Mon – Fri)

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be glad to assist you with any question you may have!

apalancamiento esma

Margin increase for EURGBP and EURJPY this Friday (Professional Clients)

14 October 2020

Our margin requirement for the EURGBP and EURJPY pairs for Professional Clients is changing this Friday, October 16th 2020, around 17:00 BST.

Our margin requirement for the EURGBP and EURJPY pairs for Professional Clients is changing this Friday, October 16th 2020, around 17:00 BST.

The measure is due to the recent increase in market volatility.

The new margin requirement will be 1% for both EURGBP and EURJPY, replacing the previous 0.5%.

It will remain in place until further notice and will affect both existing and new positions.

Kindly make sure you have enough available margin and equity in your account for the new margin level.

Need help? Please don’t hesitate to contact us at info@darwinex.com.

apalancamiento esma

Discontinuation of cryptocurrencies from 2021

15 September 2020

From 2021 Darwinex will no longer offer cryptocurrencies. As a first step, on Monday 21 September we will deactivate the creation of new accounts.

From 2021 Darwinex will no longer offer cryptocurrencies. Their low demand from our customer base does not justify the regulatory risk involved.

As a first step towards the discontinuation of cryptocurrencies, on Monday 21 September we will deactivate the creation of new accounts.

The cryptocurrency accounts already opened will be able to continue operating until the end of the year.

Amended Trading Hours U.S. Labor Day 2020

27 August 2020

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming U.S. Labor Day on September 7th, 2020. All times are UTC.

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming U.S. Labor Day on September 7th, 2020. All times are UTC.

Labor Day 2020

For your convenience:

– Normal DARWIN trading hours

– Normal FX/CFD trading hours

– Annual Calendar of Amended Darwinex Trading Hours

Apple And Tesla Stock Splits

25 August 2020

Tesla’s and Apple’s stock splits are approaching. As of August 31st, Tesla shares will be split 5-for-1, and Apple’s 4-for-1. Existing shares of each company will be multiplied by 5 and 4, respectively, and their share prices divided by those same values. At Darwinex we will apply the stock split on the weekend of August […]

Tesla’s and Apple’s stock splits are approaching. As of August 31st, Tesla shares will be split 5-for-1, and Apple’s 4-for-1. Existing shares of each company will be multiplied by 5 and 4, respectively, and their share prices divided by those same values.

At Darwinex we will apply the stock split on the weekend of August 29th.

In live accounts we will adjust open positions in $AAPL and $TSLA to the split without the need to close and reopen trades. Pending orders will be cancelled.

In demo accounts, however, we will close all open positions in $AAPL and $TSLA on Friday afternoon. Pending orders will be cancelled.

Both $AAPL and $TSLA will be available for trading from Monday, August 31st, at post-split prices.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. -- % of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.