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Changes to Experience & Performance attributes

18 January 2016

The DARWIN Exchange (Darwinex) lists DARWINs that investors purchase from independent traders. To assist investors, we grade DARWINs for investable attributes (IAs).

But: DARWINs are (different leverage) transformations of their underlying strategies. So… what are the IA grades for, the DARWIN, or its underlying strategy?

The logical answer would be – the DARWIN! Then again, remember Tradeslide and the TS Score? Way back when, we were a site that diagnosed trading strategies, and DARWINs didn’t exist. Because of that legacy, up to last week, IA grades – somewhat inconsistently – were for the underlying strategy, not its DARWIN.

For the Consistency & Timing IA grades this is irrelevant: a strategy’s and its DARWIN TP / SL levels and trade timing are identical. For other IAs DARWIN & underlying strategy differ.

To side with logic, going forward IAs will grade the DARWIN – not the underlying strategy. The rest of this post outlines the implications for the Experience and Performance IA.

1. Changes to Experience Attribute

As you may recall, the Experience IA measures statistical representativeness. One core input into it is, amongst others, D-Leverage.

Snip20160118_13

To rate the DARWIN’s statistical representativeness (instead of the underlying strategy’s), the Experience IA now feeds off DARWIN adjusted D-Leverage, as opposed to  underlying strategy’s D-Leverage. After this change, which track record is more statistically representative, a strategy’s, or its DARWIN’s?

To reach the answer, think this through. All other things being equal, which strategy has more statistical significance?:

  1. Strategy 1: Take 100 trades, one where you leverage 200:1 for 5 days, and 99 where you leverage 1:1 for 1 hour
  2. DARWIN 1: Strategy’s 1 DARWIN, as offered to investors

Strategy 1 is (probably) very driven by the outcome of the 5-day 200:1 trade. To protect investors in DARWIN 1,  risk management algos would not fully replicate the 200:1 leverage trade to begin with. Moreover, as the 5 days progressed, they would gradually close out the trade to control leverage over time. This “smoothing out” would increase DARWIN 1’s statistical significance above Strategy 1, by “allocating” performance (more) evenly across the remaining 99 trades.

DARWINs accrue Experience at least as fast as their underlying Strategy, and generally faster. Going forward, therefore, users should rejoice that DARWIN Experience grades will grow faster – precisely because it rates DARWINs, not underlying strategies. Note that investability doesn’t change one bit – it’s just that the grade refers now to something else.

2. Changes to the Performance Attribute

Similarly, the Performance Investable Attribute grades the output DARWIN’s performance (i.e. the performance on 20% VaR after algos manage D-Leverage independently from the underlying strategy).

As you may recall, the Performance IA used to include a Leverage Illusion grade in addition to the Monkey Test. Their average grade was the strategy’s 0-10 Performance score.

Because only adjusted D-Leverage drives DARWIN performance , the “with and without leverage” Leverage Illusion grade is now redundant.

Snip20160118_16

All DARWIN providers need to do now is beat trading monkeys that use their same D-leverage!

Think this makes beating the monkeys any easier? Think again 🙂

3. Changes to other Attributes

Evolution is a process,  so it doesn’t stop here! We’ll keep working hard on algorithms and ratings.

Questions on the changes or anything else Darwinex?

E-mail info@darwinex.com, we’ll be glad to help out!

 

Last News

General Election in Japan (22 October 2017)

18 October 2017

Please note that the Japan General Election is coming up this Sunday (22 October 2017). The outcome of the election could result in market gapping in JPY pairs when market opens. Please make sure you are comfortable with the open position exposure on your Darwinex account and that you have sufficient margin cover going into the weekend […]

Please note that the Japan General Election is coming up this Sunday (22 October 2017).

The outcome of the election could result in market gapping in JPY pairs when market opens.

Please make sure you are comfortable with the open position exposure on your Darwinex account and that you have sufficient margin cover going into the weekend prior to market close at 22:00 (UK time) on Friday (20 October 2017).

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be glad to assist you!

 

End of Daylight Saving Time in Europe (29 October 2017)

Please note that Daylight Saving Time ends in Europe on Sunday 29 October 2017 but our MT4 server time is NOT changing until Sunday 5 November 2017 (when Daylight Saving Time ends in the US). This means that there will be 1 week (29 October through 3 November 2017) where markets will open 1 hour earlier in GMT time […]

Please note that Daylight Saving Time ends in Europe on Sunday 29 October 2017 but our MT4 server time is NOT changing until Sunday 5 November 2017 (when Daylight Saving Time ends in the US).

This means that there will be 1 week (29 October through 3 November 2017) where markets will open 1 hour earlier in GMT time (i.e. FX market will open at 21:01 GMT instead of 22:01 GMT; commodities will open at 22:01 GMT, etc.).

Trading hours will return to normal from Sunday 5th November 2017, allowing for the daily candle to close at the end of trading in New York each day which is widely considered the end of the trading day.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be glad to assist you with any question you may have!

 

And the DarwinIA winners are…

4 October 2017

The September edition of our DarwinIA trading challenge came to its end. Below you can find the 48 winners of our € 4,000,000 notional allocation for a 6 month period. Puesto DARWIN September´s notional allocation 1º $FTT € 300,000.00 2º $KLV € 250,000.00 3º $XTT € 210,000.00 4º $FTAL € 170,000.00 5º $CEM € 150,000.00 […]

The September edition of our DarwinIA trading challenge came to its end. Below you can find the 48 winners of our € 4,000,000 notional allocation for a 6 month period.

Puesto DARWIN September´s notional allocation
$FTT € 300,000.00
$KLV € 250,000.00
$XTT € 210,000.00
$FTAL € 170,000.00
$CEM € 150,000.00
$VTJ € 140,000.00
$VQB € 130,000.00
$CLA € 120,000.00
$WPB € 110,000.00
10º $QJW € 110,000.00
11º $FGC € 110,000.00
12º $PUL € 100,000.00
13º $GTD € 100,000.00
14º $RZV € 100,000.00
15º $PGH € 90,000.00
16º $YBG € 90,000.00
17º $FEG € 90,000.00
18º $OOA € 80,000.00
19º $JZH € 80,000.00
20º $EWL € 80,000.00
21º $MBC € 70,000.00
22º $PPP € 70,000.00
23º $LZL € 70,000.00
24º $QTB € 70,000.00
25º $VNE € 60,000.00
26º $VLD € 60,000.00
27º $NIC € 60,000.00
28º $KKH € 60,000.00
29º $XMZ € 60,000.00
30º $VGC € 60,000.00
31º $XIS € 50,000.00
32º $XYP € 50,000.00
33º $RQH € 50,000.00
34º $AXF € 50,000.00
35º $YZF € 50,000.00
36º $ZMA € 50,000.00
37º $JJT € 50,000.00
38º $BAD € 40,000.00
39º $SPI € 40,000.00
40º $JKC € 40,000.00
41º $IOG € 40,000.00
42º $HIB € 40,000.00
43º $ICX € 40,000.00
44º $NLK € 40,000.00
45º $LSC € 30,000.00
46º $ELD € 30,000.00
47º $VVC € 30,000.00
48º $AWE € 30,000.00

Unofficial referendum on Catalonian independence (1 October 2017)

29 September 2017

The unofficial referendum on Catalonian independence is due on 1 October 2017 and some analysts are forecasting losses for the EUR currency as nerves over this potentially disruptive event grow. There is high uncertainty around the outcome of the unofficial referendum, which may result in market gapping in EUR pairs when market opens on Sunday. Please […]

The unofficial referendum on Catalonian independence is due on 1 October 2017 and some analysts are forecasting losses for the EUR currency as nerves over this potentially disruptive event grow.

There is high uncertainty around the outcome of the unofficial referendum, which may result in market gapping in EUR pairs when market opens on Sunday.

Please make sure you are comfortable with the open position exposure on your Darwinex account and that you have sufficient margin cover going into the weekend prior to market close at 22:00 (UK time) on Friday (29 September 2017).

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be glad to assist you!

Darwinex Amended Trading Hours for German Public Holiday (3 October 2017)

28 September 2017

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming Bank Holiday in Germany on 3 October 2017 (all times are in UK time).  Instrument Trading Hours  FX 22:05 Mon – 22:00 Tue   DARWINS 22:05 Mon – 22:00 Tue  COMMODITIES   Gold 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue Silver 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue Platinum 23:00 Mon – 22:00 […]

Please note the amended Darwinex trading hours for the upcoming Bank Holiday in Germany on 3 October 2017 (all times are in UK time).

 Instrument Trading Hours
 FX 22:05 Mon – 22:00 Tue
  DARWINS 22:05 Mon – 22:00 Tue
 COMMODITIES  
Gold 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue
Silver 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue
Platinum 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue
Palladium 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue
US Crude 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue
Natural Gas 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue
 INDICES  
Australia 200  23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue
 Europe 50 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue
France 40 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue
Germany 30* Closed
Spain 35 08:00 – 19:00
Japan 225 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue
UK 100  23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue
 US SPX 500 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue
 US Tech 100 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue
Wall Street 30 23:00 Mon – 22:00 Tue
*Amended Darwinex trading hours.

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be happy to assist you!

General Election in New Zealand (23 September 2017)

21 September 2017

Please note that the New Zealand General Election is coming up this Saturday (23 September 2017). Voting closes at 8 am (UK time) and preliminary results begin to roll in in real-time immediately afterwards. The Electoral Commission’s target is to have 50% of polling station results available by 11 am (UK time) on election night and […]

Please note that the New Zealand General Election is coming up this Saturday (23 September 2017). Voting closes at 8 am (UK time) and preliminary results begin to roll in in real-time immediately afterwards. The Electoral Commission’s target is to have 50% of polling station results available by 11 am (UK time) on election night and 100% of results available by 12.30pm (UK time).

There is high uncertainty around the outcome of the election, which may result in market gapping in NZD pairs when market opens.

Please make sure you are comfortable with the open position exposure on your Darwinex account and that you have sufficient margin cover going into the weekend prior to market close at 22:00 (UK time) on Friday (22 September 2017).

As always, at info@darwinex.com we’ll be glad to assist you!